Türkiye and Europe’s New Security Order: Between Strategic Autonomy and Mutual Dependence

By Geopodec
The Turkish Defense Renaissance: Navigating Autonomy and Alliance in a New European Security Order
Military aircraft, drone, naval vessel, armored vehicles, and soldiers symbolizing Türkiye’s expanding role in European defense and security.
Türkiye’s growing defense industry is reshaping Europe’s evolving security landscap


1. Introduction: The Shift in Continental Security Architecture

The European security framework, long anchored by NATO and American hegemony, has been fractured by two systemic external shocks: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the volatility of U.S. security commitments. As the European Union moves to underwrite its own "strategic autonomy" via the €800 billion "Re-Arm Europe" initiative, the continental architecture is being fundamentally redrawn.

While Norway and the United Kingdom are viewed as the natural pillars of this new order, Türkiye occupies a position of "ambiguous complexity." Türkiye has aggressively pivoted from a traditional NATO procurement partner into a self-reliant "tekno-nation," pursuing a strategy where cooperation with Europe is increasingly functional rather than ideological. This transformation seeks to establish Türkiye as an indispensable, autonomous security actor that simultaneously challenges and secures the EU’s eastern and southern perimeters.

2. The Domestic Engine: Constructing a "Tekno-Nation"

Ankara’s defense strategy is underpinned by a resolute narrative of autonomy, codified in the "Made in Turkey" trademark. The strategic imperative is clear: eliminate reliance on foreign hardware to ensure sovereign maneuverability in regional conflicts.

Key Industrial Actors

The institutional architecture of this renaissance is unique:

  • Defence Industry Agency (SSB): Reporting directly to the Presidency, the SSB manages special purpose funds outside the central ministry budget, allowing for rapid, politically directed investment.
  • Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (TSKGV): As a major shareholder in primary defense firms, the TSKGV ensures the Turkish military acts as both an investor and an entrepreneur, closing the loop between battlefield requirements and industrial output.

The Innovation Ecosystem

The "tekno-nation" is sustained by six specialized innovation clusters—located in Istanbul, Bursa, Izmir, Eskişehir, and two in Ankara. This network of "teknoparks" and universities has catalyzed rapid industrial maturation.

Growth Metrics

The scale of this expansion is reflected in the following data:

  • Domestic Production Share: Surged from 73% in 2022 to 80% in 2023.
  • 2024 Defense Budget: Projected to exceed $40 billion, a staggering 150% annual increase.
  • Sector Employment: Expanded from 35,502 in 2016 to over 81,132 by 2022.

3. Flagship Projects: Strategic Industrial Benchmarks

Project Name Type Manufacturer Key Capabilities/Strategic Goal
Bayraktar-TB2 UAV Baykar Battle-proven in Ukraine/Nagorno-Karabakh; exported to 30 countries.
KAAN (MMU) Stealth Fighter TUSAŞ (TAI) Planned F-16 replacement by 2030s; 100% domestic component target.
TF-2000 Frigate ASFAT / TSKGV Firms Long-range air defense; developed with national resources.
Altay MBT BMC Domestic heavy armor capability to replace aging Western stocks.
Anka-3 Stealth Drone TUSAŞ (TAI) Advanced unmanned aviation; utilizes Ukrainian-provided aero-engines.

4. Global Export Surge: "Drone Diplomacy" as Leverage

Türkiye is successfully converting industrial capacity into geopolitical capital. In 2023, export revenues hit a record $5.5 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase. Beyond sales, Ankara utilizes "drone diplomacy" to position itself as a "middle power" capable of altering regional balances.

A landmark $3 billion deal with Saudi Arabia for the Akinci drone—the largest in Turkish history—underscores a shift into the Gulf market, where Türkiye is actively challenging Chinese dominance in the UAV sector. By providing battlefield-proficient technology without the restrictive conditionalities often attached to Western or Chinese platforms, Ankara has gained unique strategic leverage across Africa and Asia.

5. Bilateral Dynamics: A Study in Strategic Contrasts

  • The UK Alliance: London remains a "reliable technological actor," having shown critical solidarity following the 2016 coup attempt. Cooperation is deep, particularly through BAE Systems and Thales UK providing technical consultancy for the MMU (KAAN) and TF-2000 frigate programs.
  • The German Pivot: After a period of restricted exports, Berlin approved €230.8 million in arms sales in 2024—the highest in nearly 20 years. Critically, these approvals include torpedoes, guided missiles, and submarine components. Chancellor Scholz has defended these deliveries as a "matter of course" for a NATO ally, signaling a possible path forward for Eurofighter Typhoon procurement.
  • The French Reset: Relations remain defined by "cold pragmatism." However, a reset is achievable through three concentric circles: 1) Strengthening bilateral economic cooperation; 2) Utilizing Romania as a minilateral bridge for Black Sea operations; and 3) Developing a realistic, shared security agenda for the Black Sea theater to contain Russian aggression.

6. The Institutional Gap: The Interdependence Dilemma

  • Customs Union Asymmetry: Under Association Council Decision 1/95, Türkiye aligns with EU tariffs but lacks reciprocal access to EU-negotiated Free Trade Agreements (e.g., India, Mercosur). This creates a structural imbalance where partners gain tariff-free access to Türkiye, while Turkish firms face delays in gaining reciprocal rights.
  • PESCO and SAFE: While Switzerland was recently approved for "Military Mobility," Türkiye’s application has been in limbo since 2021. Despite meeting the 2020 EU guidelines for third-country participation, the application is blocked by vetos from Austria, Greece, and Cyprus. Furthermore, the emerging Strategic Allied Framework for Europe (SAFE) risks excluding Turkish firms from EU defense subsidies.
  • Geoeconomic Perimeter: Legislative instruments like the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) are redrawing the EU’s industrial borders. By restricting strategic subsidies and raw material partnerships to "closely associated" partners (excluding Türkiye), the EU is generating investment diversion risks that threaten to fragment the existing value chain.

7. Geopolitical Balancing: The Strategic Multi-alignment

Türkiye maintains an "unorthodox" posture between Moscow and Kyiv, refusing Western sanctions while acting as a vital military supplier to Ukraine.

  • The Ukraine Pillar: Collaboration includes the Ada-class corvette project and a Baykar factory near Kyiv.
  • The Russian Pillar: Türkiye remains tethered to Russia not only through the S-400 acquisition (and subsequent US CAATSA sanctions) but also through deep energy reliance, exemplified by Rosatom’s Akkuyu nuclear reactor project. This multi-alignment allows Ankara to act as a regional power-broker, independent of rigid bloc constraints.

8. Conclusion: Toward a Realistic Reform Agenda

The Türkiye-EU relationship must be redefined as permanent rather than transitional. Türkiye is too militarily and geographically significant to be governed by a frozen accession process or a mismatched trade framework. To avoid the fragmentation of European supply chains, a Realistic Reform Agenda is required:

  1. GPA Accession: Türkiye should pursue the WTO Government Procurement Agreement to secure reciprocal access to EU public procurement markets.
  2. Binding Arbitration: The Customs Union must move beyond political blockages through modernized, binding dispute settlement mechanisms.
  3. Staged Roadmap: Establish a time-bound framework with measurable milestones for regulatory alignment in green-transition and defense sectors.

Integrating Türkiye into the emerging European security architecture is no longer a matter of political preference; it is a strategic necessity for a resilient, autonomous Europe.

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