Is Turkey Becoming a Eurasian Superpower? Inside Ankara’s Rise as a Central Power

By Geopodec
A Place in the Sun: The Strategic Evolution of Turkey as a Central Power
Illustrated geopolitical map highlighting Turkey’s strategic position at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, featuring energy routes, trade corridors, and regional flags.
Turkey at the crossroads of Eurasia: energy hub, trade connector, and emerging central power in a multipolar world.


1. Introduction: Beyond the "Drift from the West"

For over a decade, international observers have frequently characterized Turkey’s diplomatic maneuvers as a "drift from the West." However, a sophisticated analysis suggests this is not a simple departure, but a profound redefinition of national identity. Turkey is no longer content to serve as a peripheral "front state" of the Western alliance; instead, it is asserting itself as a "Central Power" at the heart of Eurasia, seeking to provide security and stability across its neighboring regions.

“Ankara’s new diplomatic activism represents a significant transformation of Turkish foreign policy that merits a more thoughtful analysis than the simplistic accusation that Turkey is moving away from the West.” — Sinan Ulgen, Carnegie Europe

This transformation is bolstered by a deep-seated psychological driver known as the "Sèvres Syndrome." Rooted in the post-WWI era, this syndrome fuels a persistent public suspicion regarding Western motives, fostering broad domestic support for a more "independentist" and assertive foreign policy. Consequently, Turkey has transitioned from a mere consumer of Western security to an active "order setter," balancing its traditional alliances with a pragmatic, multi-regional approach.

2. The Architectural Shift: Davutoglu’s "Strategic Depth"

The transformation of Turkish foreign policy is anchored in the "Strategic Depth" doctrine, which envisions Turkey as a pivotal player with a unique historical-cultural legacy. This architecture rests on three pillars:

  • Reconceptualization of Identity: Leveraging its Ottoman and Islamic heritage, Turkey views itself as a central Eurasian power. This multidimensional identity allows it to engage the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus without privileging its Western orientation over other regional priorities.
  • De-securitization of Foreign Relations: Ankara has shifted from a "threat-based" military posture to a "win-win" diplomatic approach. By pursuing "zero problems with neighbors," the civilian leadership has successfully reduced the military’s influence over foreign policy, prioritizing dialogue and cooperation over historical survivalist anxieties.
  • The Emergence of the "Trading State": Economic interdependence is now the primary driver of Turkish diplomacy. Turkey has pivoted from import substitution to an export-oriented growth strategy, with trade now accounting for 48% of national income. In the last decade, per capita income has tripled from $3,000 to $9,000, empowering a new class of "Anatolian Tigers." These dynamic, conservative enterprises drive rapprochement with the Middle East and Africa, as they often lack the economies of scale required to compete in mature Western markets and thus find their comparative advantage in emerging neighborhoods.

3. Turkey as the Global Energy Bridge

Turkey’s geography places it adjacent to 72% of the world’s proven gas and 73% of its oil reserves. Its objective is to become Europe’s "fourth main artery" of energy supply, alongside Norway, Russia, and Algeria.

Key Energy Transit Infrastructure

Project Name Core Function Strategic Impact
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude oil transit Transports 1 million barrels/day; bypasses the sensitive Turkish Straits to Ceyhan.
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Natural gas export The "first leg of the Trans-Caspian project," tapping into Turkmenistan’s reserves (world’s 4th largest).
Nabucco Pipeline Natural gas transit Envisaged to carry gas to Austria via the Balkans, diversifying Europe’s source and route.
Samsun-Ceyhan (Trans-Anatolian) Crude oil bypass Identified by the MFA as the "most environmentally manageable" bypass for the Bosphorus.
Arab Gas Pipeline Natural gas import/export Designed to transport Egyptian gas to Turkey and beyond via Jordan and Syria.

4. Case Studies in Diplomatic Activism (2010–2025)

The Iran Nuclear Issue (2010)

On May 17, 2010, Turkey and Brazil brokered the Tehran Research Reactor deal, involving the transfer of 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. This initiative was met with deep frustration from the "Vienna Group" (USA, Russia, France, and the IAEA), who viewed the deal as a threat to the P-5’s unified sanctions front. Turkey’s subsequent vote against UN sanctions on June 9, 2010, signaled its refusal to remain a silent partner when its regional mediator role was at stake.

The 2025 Geopolitical Shift

By 2025, Turkey’s "Strategic Autonomy" reached full maturity. In the year following the fall of the Assad regime (December 8, 2025), Turkey established itself as a "Third Pole" in the Syrian equation alongside the US and Russia, providing the new state with essential institutional, economic, and defense consultancies.

Drone Diplomacy and Security Exportation

A critical driver of this shift was the deployment of Bayraktar TB2 drones. By demonstrating the ability to neutralize Russian "Pantsir" defense systems in regional conflicts, Turkey successfully transitioned from an "importer of security" to a major "exporter of security." This technological edge has allowed Ankara to conduct major operations independently of the NATO security umbrella, often over the objections of Washington and Brussels.

5. Regional Power Dynamics and the "Middle Corridor"

  1. The Development Road: A vital logistics link connecting Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to the Turkish border, facilitating trade between the Gulf and European markets.
  2. The Zangezur Corridor: A strategic link through Nakhchivan connecting Azerbaijan directly to Turkey, providing a gateway to Central Asian markets.
  3. The Middle Corridor: A secure, Turkey-centric alternative to traditional trade routes, connecting Chinese production to European consumers.
  4. The Ankara Process: A mediation initiative between Somalia and Ethiopia, specifically responding to Mogadishu's concerns over Ethiopia’s sea-access memorandum with Somaliland, viewed as a violation of sovereignty.
  5. The Niger Partnership (July 2025): A "Trading State" milestone where the MTA (General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration) secured agreements for gold and uranium extraction in exchange for advanced defense technology.

6. The "Normative" Challenge and Relations with the West

As Turkey moves from a consumer to an "order setter," it faces the challenge of climbing the "normative ladder," which consists of three distinct rungs:

  1. Projecting stability and fostering regional cooperation.
  2. Participating in international rule-making and global burden-sharing.
  3. Spreading universal values, including democracy and human rights.

While Turkey has excelled at the first rung, it has struggled with the latter two, often remaining a late signatory to global agreements like the Kyoto Protocol.

Note to Analysts: The Grand Bargain
The long-term stability of the Turkey-West relationship requires a "Grand Bargain." Western powers must grant Turkey the necessary leeway to pursue its regional interests, while Ankara must reciprocate by assuming a more normative role, sharing the costs and responsibilities of providing global public goods and international rule-making.

7. Conclusion: Sustainability and the New Multipolar Reality

Whether Turkey’s "Place in the Sun" is sustainable remains a point of geopolitical debate. The "Glass Half Full" perspective highlights Turkey’s role as an indispensable energy hub, its booming export-oriented economy, and its successful mediation in Africa and the Balkans.

However, the "Glass Half Empty" view cautions against regional overextension. A notable limit to Turkey's influence is seen in the Caucasus, where Azerbaijan’s "loss of confidence" in Ankara—following the mishandled Armenia normalization protocols—revealed the fragility of Turkey’s regional leadership. Furthermore, continued tensions with Israel and the stalling of the EU accession process remain significant hurdles.

Ultimately, Turkey is no longer a state "drifting" away from the West, but a power re-balancing itself within a new multipolar reality. Its deep institutional and economic ties to the West—including 80% of its FDI originating from the US and EU—provide a structural barrier against a total break. As long as Ankara can harmonize its regional ambitions with its responsibilities as a global partner, it will remain a cornerstone of Eurasian stability.

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